Who is going to win the All-Terrain Runner series?

The All-Terrain runner series will wrap up at the USATF NE cross-country championships at Franklin Park on November 6^th.  With a best 4 (of 6 events) counting there are still plenty of opportunities for the standings to be shaken up.

Women’s age groups

W40 – Regina Loicano (CMS) has a perfect score (400 points) she has won the 40-49 age group.

W50 – There are 43 women who have run one race.  No one has run more than one.  Any of the 43 could win, or if none of them compete at the XC championships a four-way tie could result.

W60 – Diane Levesque (aR) has run all five races and cannot be beaten in the 60-69 age group.

W70 – Jan Holmquist (WRT) is the only 70+ woman to have completed any of the races.  If Jan runs XC she will automatically win.

Men’s age groups

M40 – Chad Carr (CRC) currently leads; he can increase his point total with a 28:25 or better.  He cannot be beaten if he runs under 27:12 (assuming the winner runs 26:35, which is the average winning time over the last 2 years).
 
Tim Van Orden (CMS) is the only person who could possibly move into the lead.  He would need to run under 27:50 (assuming Carr doesn’t increase his total).

M50 – Dan Verrington (CMS) has a near perfect score of 397.82, he has won the 50-59 age group.

M60 – Len Hall (UVRC) has three wins and a second place; he has won the 60-69 age group.
 
M70 – Richard Paulsen (NE65+) has completed four races and has won the 70+ age group.

I’ve analyzed the data and came up with some scenarios for the top 5 men and women and for the age group winners.  I based my projections on the average winning times (women 6k & men 10k) at Franklin Park over the last two years.  For the men the average winning time has been 30:10 and for the women the average has been 20:30.

Notes on the spreadsheet:

Best 4 = current best four races run
Min = The lowest score that could be knocked out at the XC race
Potential = Total possible best 4 if they scored 100 points at the XC race
Men – 7 potential finishers for the top 5 spots

				Potential	Min	Best 4	# Raced	Total Pts
Scott	Leslie	34	CMS	394.82	90.14	384.96	5	468.25
Colin	Carroll	30	CMS	396.06	88.21	384.27	4	384.27
Eric	Narcisi	35	CMS	388.20	89.19	377.39	5	454.59
TJ	Unger	37	HFC	390.33	86.57	376.90	5	458.37
Brandon	Newbould	34	WRT	383.89	87.94	371.83	4	371.83
Dan	Button	29	Sisu	376.08	84.44	360.52	5	440.66
Scott	Mindel	29	CMS	397.86	0.00	297.86	3	297.86

Keep in mind that the point totals (and times needed) would change based on the winning time.  If it is significantly faster or slower than my assumed 30:10/20:30, the times needed would be impacted.

 
Scott Leslie (CMS) is currently sitting in first place by less than one point.  He can improve his point total by running faster than 33:30. 

Colin Carroll (CMS) is currently in second place by less than one point.  He can improve his point total by running faster than 34:10.

 Eric Narcisi (CMS) founder of the ATR series, currently in 3^rd place.  He would improve his point total with anything under 33:45 and would need to run under 31:00 to move into the lead (assuming no one improved their scores).

TJ Unger (HFC) is currently in fourth place.  He would improve his score by running under 34:50.  A sub 32 could move him into the lead (if no one else improved their scores).

Brandon Newbould (WRT) is currently in fifth place.  He would improve his score with anything under 34:20, but cannot finish higher than third place no matter how fast he runs.

Dan Button (Sisu) is not currently in the top five but could move up.  He’d need to run better than 33:45 and hope no one else improves their score in order to crack the top five.

Scott Mindel (CMS) is not currently in the top five due to only running 3 races.  He has the biggest potential to move up.  A 34:20 could move him into first place (if no one else improves) and he is assured a series victory with a time under 30:45.

Women – 7 potential finishers for the top five spots

							Potential	Min	Best 4	Finishes	Total
Kasie	Enman	F	36	Huntington	VT	GMAA	388.94	94.17	383.11	4	383.11
Liz	Ryan	F	25	Cambridge	MA	GBTC	393.59	85.14	378.73	4	378.73
Heather	Mahoney	F	33	Westford	MA	WRT	386.15	87.72	373.87	5	445.80
Regina	Loiacano	F	42	Gloucester	MA	CMS	381.74	91.79	373.53	5	460.25
Leslie	O'Dell	F	39	Albany	NH	CMS	381.47	89.49	370.96	5	452.26
Ginger	Reiner	F	38	Lincoln	MA		383.57	82.78	366.35	4	366.35
Jennifer	Brooks	F	36	Gloucester	MA	CMS	373.61	83.54	357.15	4	357.15

Kasie Enman (GMAA) currently leads, adds to her point total with a time faster than 21:45.  Three women could potentially catch her if she doesn’t run the XC race AND they improve their point totals.

Liz Ryan (GBTC) currently in second place.  She has the best chance of moving up (having the lowest low score of those currently in the top five).  Any time under 24:10 increases her points and 21:30 would mover her into the lead (assuming Kasie doesn’t also increase her score).

Heather Mahoney (WRT) currently in third place would improve her score running under 23:20.  She could move into the lead with a 21:10 if no one adds to their point totals.

Regina Loiacano (CMS) is currently in fourth place; she can’t win but could improve her score with times under 22:20.

Leslie O’Dell (CMS) is currently in fifth place; she also can’t win but could improve her score with times under 22:55.

Ginger Reiner (Unatt) is currently in sixth place, she could finish anywhere in the top five depending on how fast she runs at the XC champs.  Anything under 24:45 would improve her point total.  She would need to win (or finish very close in time to the winner) to score enough points to move into first place, assuming Enman, Ryan, and Mahoney don’t improve their scores.

Jennifer Brooks (CMS) currently in seventh place, could move into 4^th, but would need to win (or finish very close in time to the winner at XC).  Could also move into 5^th with a time under 21:00.  Any time under 24:30 improves her score.