Tuesday, May 25, 2010

2010 Mt Washington Ranking

In a typical year on 23 men run under 1:15 and 10 women run under 1:30. The highest totals for each are from 2008 (the last year the race was the US championship) when 53 men broke 1:15 and 25 women broke 1:30.

I’m predicting 85 men and 47 women to break 1:15 and 1:30 respectively. If this happens it will be a huge record by each group.

Predicting results is a tricky thing, especially in a year like this with it not only being the 50th and the US championship but also being the ONLY qualifier for the US team. There has to be a record number of people running who have great road times but are untested on the mountain. These people are the bane of anyone trying to handicap the race. A 2:14 marathon might well run under an hour, then again he might step off the course at 2 miles. Nothing indicates success on the Mountain better than previous results on the Mountain. Of course all of this also assumes “normal” weather on race day (whatever that might mean).

So here are my rankings based on previous results, current form (if I could figure that out), and plain and simple educated guesses. To anyone who doesn’t like their rank, I say “make up your own rankings”.
RankFirstLastPredictionAgeCitySt
1JosephGraysub 10226LakewoodWA
2RickeyGatessub 10229woody creekCO
3EricBlakesub 10231New BritainCT
4JeffreyEgglestonsub 10225GreeceNY
5MaxKingsub 10230BendOR
6ZacharyFreudenburgsub 10531st louisMO
7MatthewByrnesub 10535ScrantonPA
8KevinTiltonsub 10528N conwayNH
9LukeWatsonsub 10529State CollegePA
10JustinFyffesub 10530E DumemrstonVT
11JimJohnsonsub 10533SalemNH
12TommyManningsub 11034colorado springsCO
13JoelBourgeoissub 11039Grand-digueNB
14JasonBryantsub 11037ElkinNC
15MattRussellsub 11027WellsME
16FrancisBurdettsub 11045WorcesterMA
17DanielPrincicsub 11030ReadingMA
18AlexNicholssub 11025Colorado SpringsCO
19AndyAmessub 11047BoulderCO
20EricMorsesub 11045BerlinVT
21DanielHockingsub 11030DoverNH
22ShilohMielkesub 11030WeavervilleNC
23TimmyParrsub 11028GunnisonCO
24ScottRowesub 11035DoverNH
25JohnTribbiasub 11028BoulderCO
26BenNephewsub 11034MansfieldMA
27SeanLivingstonsub 11041BarringtonRI
28BrendonMahoneysub 11030San FranciscoCA
29AndyMcCarronsub 11027KeeneNH
30MatthewClarksub 11027AmherstMA
31JustinFreemansub 11033New HamtonNH
32ChrisLundstromsub 11034MinneapolisMN
33ChrisSiemerssub 11029ArvadaCO
34MichaelSmithsub 11030FlagstaffAZ
35RichardBoltsub 11039PortlandOR
36JaredScottsub 11027FlagstaffAZ
37MatthewHaringasub 11526BrightonMA
38KristopherHoughtonsub 11029AlbuquerqueNM
39RyanHafersub 11024colorado springsCO
40TylerMcCandlesssub 11023State CollPA
41JosephNavassub 11039N EasthamMA
42MikeQuintalsub 11032N AndoverMA
43DavidBedoyasub 11533SomervilleMA
44PeterMaksimowsub 11531manitou springsCO
45PatricArdsub 11526RaymondNH
46AndrewWommacksub 11526jamaica plainMA
47PatrickRichsub 11533S hamiltonMA
48RyanAschbrennersub 11532WalthamMA
49DanVerringtonsub 11547BradfordMA
50HenryScollardsub 11546CambridgeMA
51TimVan Ordensub 11542BenningtonVT
52ScottSimmonssub 11538DurangoCO
53FergusCullensub 11538DoverNH
54DavidHerrsub 11545CanaanVT
55JamesPawlickisub 11535BeverlyMA
56EdwardBreensub 11528MedfordMA
57DavidQuintalsub 11547SalemNH
58NicolasMenziessub 11531Jamaica PlainMA
59KevinTucksub 11554salt lake cityUT
60MichaelWoodmansub 11544TimoniumMD
61ChadCarrsub 11534CambridgeMA
62TomoakiUchikisub 11536jamaica plainMA
63MalcolmCampbellsub 11539MariettaGA
64JordanZwicksub 11524RochesterNY
65RichMarionsub 11548TempletonMA
66TristanColangelosub 11528BostonMA
67KrisFreemansub 11529ThorntonNH
68ErnestBrakesub 11548N SuttonNH
69MattSchadowsub 11531MinnetonkaMN
70DeweyPeacocksub 11530BozemanMT
71ThomasBrownsub 11524BostonMA
72ToddCallaghansub 11540SomervilleMA
73MartinTighesub 11552ProvidenceRI
74RobertEspinosasub 11526BostonMA
75MichaelGuarasciosub 11526bostonMA
76PaulPetersensub 11518BroomfieldCO
77TimMahoneysub 11530HolyokeMA
78ChrisMahoneysub 11532HaverhillMA
79RodVienssub 11542GranthamNH
80RobertJackmansub 11528WarwickRI
81ChrisLowesub 11528AllstonMA
82MarkRybinskisub 11555ManliusNY

7 comments:

GZ said...

82 sub 75 is mind boggling deep!

Thanks for posting Dave. Makes for good conversation!

I ran a non scientific informal poll on my blog and top vote getters for the mens team are (in order of percentage of votes) are Gates, Gray, Blake, Gutierrez, Parr, Freudenberg and ... other.

double-d said...

Simon G will have a tough time making the team....he is not running (recovering for injury). The others are very safe guesses. There will be at least one guy that no one expects who will have a GREAT day and probably 10 guys who will have an awful day.

Daniel Hocking said...

Thanks for compiling this list. I'm excited to do the event for the first time. I ran up the road last weekend with Kevin Tilton and truly wondered what made me think this was a good idea. Now I'm excited again after your post.

DoubleJ said...

Dan, in my super secret rankings list, I have you and Scott Rowe in the top 10 for sure!

double-d said...

Dan: I heard about your run with KT. 1:16 training run is impressive.

Jim: Please post your super secret rankings or will you wait until after the race then post :-)

Kevin said...

When are you going to update the snowshoe rankings?

DoubleJ said...

call me crazy, but I'm picking Scotty Rowe to make the team! ;) There...I said it.