Thursday, May 17, 2012

Mt Washington predictions - Who will make the podium?

Who will make the podium (USATF Only)?
40-44   Gold – Sean Livingston 1:08:00    Silver – Mark Mayall 1:08:30       Bronze – Richard Bolt 1:10:00
Experience trumps all.
Others in contention = Tim Van Orden, Todd Callaghan, Fergus Cullen, Joe Donnelly

45-49   Gold – Simon Gutierrez 1:03:00   Silver – Francis Burdett 1:06:30   Bronze – Dave Dunham 1:08:00
No one can come close to Simon.
Others in contention = Scott Clark, Brian Ruhm, John Pajer, David Principe, David Quintal

50-54 Gold – Craig Fram 1:08:00           Silver –             Martin Tighe 1:15:30      Bronze –  Paul Hammond 1:15:45
Fram is untouchable.
Others in contention = Ernie Brake, John Weiner, Paul Doe

55-59 Gold – Reno Stirrat 1:16:30          Silver – Kevin Tuck 1:16:31         Bronze – Matt Curran 1:16:32
Really tight race.
Others in contention = Len Hall, Bob Gillis

Top Teams?
40+ Gold – Whirlaway RT                      Silver – CMS                              Bronze – Gate City Striders
WRT upsets CMS in a very close finish…

50+ Gold – Whirlaway RT                      Silver –                                                 Bronze –
New Course record for WRT!

Single age records – I think 7 records could fall
40         Matt Carpenter               1:02:12 2005                
41         Simon Gutierrez             1:04:03 2007                
42         Simon Gutierrez             1:01:34 2008                 AGR
43         Simon Gutierrez             1:04:16 2009                
44         Craig Fram                    1:03:27 2003                
45         Simon Gutierrez             1:04:33 2011                 AGR
46         Francis Burdett               1:07:09 2011                             Simon Gutierrez will destroy this
47         Dave Dunham                1:09:11 2011                             Francis Burdett will be way under this
48         Glen Guillemette 1:10:17 2008                             Dave Dunham could break this (I hope)
49         Craig Fram                    1:05:45 2008                
50         Craig Fram                    1:06:58 2009                 AGR
51         Sumner Brown               1:13:56 1995                
52         Craig Fram                    1:08:50 2011                
53         Kevin Tuck                     1:13:39 2009                             Craig Fram will smash this
54         Kevin Tuck                     1:16:00 2010                             Martin Tighe could break this            
55         Reno Stirrat                   1:17:47 2009                             Kevin Tuck or Matt Curran could break this  
56         Chuck Smead                 1:17:16 2008                 AGR
57         Bob Evers                      1:17:19 2008                
58         Bob Evers                      1:19:24 2009                             Reno S could break this                     
59         Sumner Brown               1:24:07 2003                
 
And here is the complete prediction spreadsheet...
PredictionFirstLastCityStateAgeCatTeamRange201120102009PR
1:03:00SimonGutierrezColorado SpringsCO4645-49Team CO1:03-1:061:04 1:041:01 (99)
1:06:30FrancisBurdettWorcesterMA4745-49CMS (U=GSH)1:06-1:121:071:121:061:06 (09)
1:08:00CraigFramPlaistowNH5350-54WRT1:08-1:111:08 1:061:03 (95)
1:08:00SeanLivingstonBarringtonRI4340-44WRT1:08-1:12  1:081:04 (92)
1:08:00DaveDunhamWard HillMA4845-49CMS1:08-1:091:091:121:091:00 (99)
1:08:30MarkMayallMaynardMA4040-44NBB1:08-1:131:09  1:09 (11)
1:10:00RichardBoltMountain ViewCA4140-441:09-1:14 1:20 1:06 (99)
1:10:30TimVan OrdenBenningtonVT4440-44CMS1:09-1:141:111:17 1:11 (11)
1:12:30ScottClarkGilmantonNH4645-49CMS1:12-1:15   1:07 (95)
1:13:30ToddCallaghanBeverlyMA4240-44GCS1:10-1:151:151:14 1:14 (10)
1:13:30BrianRuhmNashuaNH4745-49GCS1:11-1:16    
1:14:30FergusCullenDoverNH4040-44GCS1:13-1:18 1:15 1:06 (99)
1:14:30JoeDonnellyDracutMA4440-44WRT1:11-1:161:141:14 1:14 (11)
1:14:45DavidPrincipeCranstonRI4545-49TNT1:12-1:17    
1:15:00DavidQuintalSalemNH4945-49CMS1:14-1:171:171:151:141:14 (09)
1:15:30MartinTigheProvideceRI5450-54CMS1:12-1:161:161:261:161:16 (11)
1:15:45Paul HammondLexingtonMA5250-54WRT1:12-1:16    
1:16:00ErnestBrakeNorth SuttonNH5050-54CMS1:15-1:191:161:181:201:11 (03)
1:16:30RenoStirratDorchesterMA5855-59WRT1:12-1:181:171:181:171:16 (08)
1:16:30KevinTuckSalt Lake CityUT5555-591:15-1:20 1:161:131:13 (09)
1:16:30MatthewCurranGloucesterMA5555-59TG (U=GLRR)1:15-1:201:191:201:171:16 (08)
1:16:45JohnWeinerOsceolaPA5050-541:13-1:18    
1:17:00JohnHoganWashington TownshipNJ4645-49SF1:15-1:201:19 1:241:19 (11)
1:17:00AllanSerranoHigh FallsNY4440-44Shawangunk1:12-1:17    
1:17:00Paul DoeDerryNH5350-54WRT1:14-1:19    
1:17:30JohnPajerLeicesterMA4945-49CMS1:12-1:17    
1:19:00WarrenAngellChepachetRI4945-49NRA1:15-1:20  1:201:19 (92)
1:19:00BradOverturfNorwichCT4545-49Mohegan1:16-1:23   1:22 (07)
1:19:30AndyMacDonaldBostonMA5250-54BAA1:16-1:211:17  1:11 (99)
1:20:00MichaelPlattNeedhamMA5050-54WRT1:15-1:20    
1:20:00DougMartynNorth AndoverMA5250-54WRT1:15-1:20   1:22 (08)
1:21:00JeffGouldGardnerMA4745-49NMC1:19-1:271:221:271:271:17 (91)
1:22:00ChrisDemingDanburyCT4545-491:17-1:22    
1:22:00RoccoDella SerraCranfordNJ5150-541:17-1:22    
1:23:00JohnKnepperMidland ParkNJ4545-49SF1:19-1:261:231:26 1:23 (11)
1:25:00ThorKirleisNorth ReadingMA4240-44 1:19-1:291:281:28 1:28 (11)
1:25:00Paul KirschMadisonNH4645-49WMM1:25-1:301:281:261:291:25 (04)
1:26:30ToddBrownRocky HillCT4845-49NMC1:23-1:301:291:301:241:21 (05)
1:27:00MichaelVitelliMarshfield HillsMA4845-49BAA1:20-1:301:26  1:26 (11)
1:27:30LenHallEnfieldNH5855-59GCS  1:26-1:311:271:261:281:08 (83)
1:28:00BobGillisGloucesterMA5755-59Team Gloucester1:25-1:301:291:301:291:22 (99)
1:29:00DarrinReesHartfordCT4040-44HTC1:22-1:291:291:45 1:29 (11)
1:30:00ChrisSpinneyArlingtonMA5250-54WRT1:25-1:30    
1:30:00StephenPetersonChelmsfordMA4645-49CMS1:28-1:351:291:391:291:08 (91)
1:30:00DavidLapierreChelmsfordMA4845-49CMS1:28-1:35 1:341:341:08 (91)

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