The USATF NE All-Terrain runner series will wrap up at the USATF NE cross-country championships at Franklin Park on November 5th. With a best 5 (of 7 events) counting there are still plenty of opportunities for the standings to be shaken up.
I’ve analyzed the data and came up with some scenarios for the top 5 men and women and for the age group winners. I based my projections on the average winning times (women 6k & men 10k) at Franklin Park over the last two years. For the men the average winning time has been 30:10 and for the women the average has been 20:30.
Women’s age groups
W40 – Leslie O’Dell (CMS) has run five of the races and cannot be overtaken in the 40-49 age group.
W50 – Victoria Bok (LAC) has two finishes and leads the scoring. There are 69 women who have run one race. Any of the 69 could win, or if none of them compete at the XC championships Bok would win.
W60 – Elaine Dill (aR) has run all four of the races and cannot be beaten in the 60-69 age group.
W70 – Laura Clark (Saratoga) and Nancy Patch (GLRR) are the only 70+ women to have completed any of the races. If no one competes in the XC race then Clark would win. Should a 70+ woman run the XC and score more than 50.34 points (approximately 40:50) she would take the title.
Men’s age groups
M40 – Ryan Carrara (Battle Road) has run five races and cannot be overtaken in the 40-49 age group.
M50 – Ed Sheldon (CMS) has run all six races and his best five score of 435.06 should give him the victory in the 50-59 age group. Only Dave Dunham (CMS) could theoretically catch him but he would need to score 91 points which is approximately 26:30 for 8km (or about 3 minutes faster than anything he has raced in the last 4 years).
M60 – Paul Bazanchuk (CMS) has four finishes and leads the 60-69 with 290.09 points. If Paul doesn’t run the XC race Allan Bates (GMAA) theoretically could catch him but he would need to score 96 points which would be around world record time for a 60-plus runner.
M70 – Frederick Ross III (CSU) leads the way in the 70+ with 308.23 points over 5 races. Robert Knight (NE65+) and Richard Paulsen (NE65+) have also completed 5 races. Paulsen has the best opportunity to improve his score but to pass Ross he’d need to score 81 points or about 29:45 for the 8km. Similarly Knight could catch Ross with about 80 points.
Overall
Keep in mind that the point totals (and times needed) would change based on the winning time. If it is significantly faster or slower than my assumed 30:10/20:30, the times needed would be impacted.
Men: There are 8 men vying for the top 5 spots ($$$$). I’ve sorted them on Best 5. Lowest shows the lowest point total that could be replaced by the Cross Country race. Average gives an idea of the typical score that person has gotten this year.
Total
|
#
|
Best
| |||||||||
Name
|
Gend
|
Age
|
City
|
St
|
Team
|
Points
|
Raced
|
5 of 7
|
Lowest
|
Average
| |
Scott
|
Leslie
|
M
|
35
|
Rutland
|
MA
|
CMS
|
567.23
|
6
|
480.04
|
91.67
|
94.54
|
Ryan
|
Carrara
|
M
|
40
|
Hudson
|
MA
|
Battle Rd
|
452.72
|
5
|
452.72
|
88.79
|
90.54
|
TJ
|
Unger
|
M
|
35
|
Westwood
|
MA
|
HFC
|
441.05
|
5
|
441.05
|
65.31
|
88.21
|
Edward
|
Sheldon
|
M
|
52
|
Hooksett
|
NH
|
CMS
|
510.41
|
6
|
435.06
|
81.83
|
85.07
|
Daniel
|
Button
|
M
|
30
|
Sisu
|
381.32
|
4
|
381.32
|
0.00
|
95.33
| ||
Dave
|
Dunham
|
M
|
52
|
Bradford
|
MA
|
CMS
|
344.25
|
4
|
344.25
|
0.00
|
86.06
|
Michael
|
McGrane
|
M
|
46
|
Ashland
|
MA
|
BAA
|
332.96
|
4
|
332.96
|
0.00
|
83.24
|
Brandon
|
Newbould
|
M
|
35
|
Nottingham
|
NH
|
WRT
|
291.85
|
3
|
291.85
|
0.00
|
97.28
|
Scott Leslie (CMS) is currently sitting in first place. He can improve his point total by running faster than 32:55. If he runs under 32:30 he would seal the series win. If he runs slower than 32:30 he can only lose the top spot to Daniel Button who would need to win the race outright.
Ryan Carrara (Battle Rd) is in second place (and has won the 40+). Any time under 34:00 would increase his point total. He cannot move into first place, but could be displaced by others moving up.
TJ Unger (HFC) is currently in third place. He would improve his score by running under 46:55. He can’t catch Leslie but a sub 39:30 could move him into second place (if Carrara doesn’t improve his score and no one else moves up).
Ed Sheldon (CMS) is in fourth place and is leading the 50+ age group. He can increase his point total by running under 29:37. He cannot catch Leslie and could only pass Carrara with a near perfect score (around 24:20 for 8km).
Daniel Button (Sisu) is currently in fifth place but only has four finishes. He could catch pass Leslie but it would take an overall win at XC (or something very close to it) and Leslie not improving his score. He could pass Carrara and move into second place by running faster than 42:00 (again assuming Carrara doesn’t improve his score).
Dave Dunham is in 6th place and also only has four finishes. Realistically he could only move into the top five if Button doesn’t run the XC race.
Micheal McGrane is currently in 7th place, and he also only has four finishes. He could move into fifth if Button and Dunham do not run the XC race.
Brandon Newbould (WRT) is in 8th place with only THREE finishes. He would only move into the top 5 if Button, Dunham and McGrane don’t run the XC race AND he runs under 33:30.
Women: There are 11 women vying for the top 5 spots ($$$$). I’ve sorted them on Best 5. Lowest shows the lowest point total that could be replaced by the Cross Country race. Average gives an idea of the typical score that person has gotten this year.
Total
|
Best
|
#
| |||||||||
Name
|
Gend
|
Age
|
City
|
St
|
Team
|
Points
|
5 of 7
|
Raced
|
Lowest
|
Average
| |
Kasie
|
Enman
|
F
|
37
|
Huntington
|
VT
|
GMAA
|
494.23
|
494.23
|
5
|
97.08
|
98.85
|
Leslie
|
O'Dell
|
F
|
40
|
Albany
|
NH
|
CMS
|
449.25
|
449.25
|
5
|
87.45
|
89.85
|
Ginger
|
Reiner
|
F
|
39
|
Craft
|
375.52
|
375.52
|
4
|
0.00
|
93.88
| ||
Jamie
|
Woolsey
|
F
|
33
|
Oneida
|
NY
|
aR
|
255.33
|
255.33
|
3
|
0.00
|
85.11
|
Elaine
|
Dill
|
F
|
68
|
aR
|
247.62
|
247.62
|
4
|
0.00
|
61.90
| ||
Sumner
|
Button
|
F
|
31
|
Uxbridge
|
MA
|
Sisu
|
228.89
|
228.89
|
3
|
0.00
|
76.30
|
Kathryn
|
Cooper
|
F
|
37
|
Craft
|
194.33
|
194.33
|
2
|
0.00
|
97.17
| ||
Jennifer
|
Mortimer
|
F
|
34
|
Millennium
|
192.01
|
192.01
|
2
|
0.00
|
96.01
| ||
Allison
|
McCabe
|
F
|
35
|
GBTC
|
189.07
|
189.07
|
2
|
0.00
|
94.54
| ||
Sarah
|
Canney
|
F
|
34
|
Farmington
|
NH
|
Six03
|
163.89
|
163.89
|
2
|
0.00
|
81.95
|
Victoria
|
Bok
|
F
|
55
|
Liberty AC
|
152.59
|
152.59
|
2
|
0.00
|
76.29
|
Kasie Enman (GMAA) has won the series, she can add to her point total with a time faster than 21:05.
Leslie O’Dell (CMS) is currently in second place (and has won the 40+); she can’t win but could improve her score with times under 23:30. She can fall no lower than third place; only Ginger Reiner can overtake her.
Ginger Reiner (Craft) is currently in third place with only four finishes. She could move up to second place if O’Dell doesn’t improve her total and she runs under 28:00. If she runs under 23:40 she will move into second even if O’Dell WINS the XC race.
Jamie Woolsey (aR) is currently in fourth place. With 3 finishes she cannot finish any higher than fourth place.
Elaine Dill (aR) is currently in fifth place. She could move up to fourth place if Woolsey doesn’t run XC.
Sumner Button (Sisu), Kathryn Cooper (Craft), Jennifer Mortimer (Millennium), Allison McCabe (GBTC), Sarah Canney (Six03), and Victoria Bok (LAC) all could move into fourth or fifth place (but no higher) depending on who does or doesn’t race at the XC championships.
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