Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Predict your Mt Washington time with your Ascutney time

Josh Fields recently posed the question “What is the conversion to estimate performance at Mt Washington based on times at Ascutney” (or something like that).  His estimate of 2.2 seemed about right, but I decided to do a little more research.  Of course any projection doesn’t take into account variables like weather (at either race they could be a huge factor) or a runner having a great day at one race or the other.
I took the times for all men under 32 minutes (58 men) and all women under 42 minutes (70).  Then I compared them to performances FOR THAT YEAR at Mt Washington.  This got me 74 data points (people who ran under those times and ran both races in the same year).  From that I was able to come up with projections of your “best”, “worst” and “average”.  The best had a 2.04 ratio, worst was 2.47 and more importantly the average was 2.25.  So check out the link to the new Mt Washington projections.  Just plug in your time at Ascutney and it will give you an idea of a best case, worst case, and average time for Mt Washington.
This is for entertainment purposes only, your time may vary.  Good luck!

1 comment:

Kevin said...

My 2004 Ascutney time is way too fast due to the "Chip on my shoulder" factor. :-)