Who is going to win at Mt Washington?

2012 Mt Washington Road Race

I’m the (self-proclaimed) senior Mt Washington road race historian…that and $2 will get you a Dunkin Donuts coffee.  So how does that qualify me to handicap the field at this year’s race?  It doesn’t!  I had a little extra time this week, as I cut out my morning runs in an attempt to finally drop my mileage, and I figured why not check out who is running?  I’d already done my worst in handicapping the 40+ and 50+ field so why not take a crack at offending a bunch of open runners who I don’t even know.

As with the race in 2010 it is the sole qualifier for the U.S. Mountain running team which will compete in the mountains of Italy in September.  As such it is also the U.S. Mountain running national championships.  Typically that means the field will be stronger than non-championship years.  The best way to define the depth of field is by times run by the top runners.  Of course this can vary widely based on extreme weather conditions (and if you look back beyond the late 1980’s there wasn’t any prize money which would definitely have an impact on the field).  Anyway, if you look at the years with the most runners under 1:10 and 1:05 you’ll see something of a trend.  When the race is a championship you get a LOT of sub 1:10 and sub 1:05’s.  I think this year will be typical (if the weather isn’t too nasty) and about 30 guys will break 1:10 and about 8 guys will sneak under 1:05.  Keep in mind that the top 6 make the U.S. team.

By year	Sub 1:10	Sub 1:05	Sub 1:00
2008	32	7	0
2010	26	8	0
1999	20	8	2
2011	19	6	0
2009	19	5	1
2006	17	5	0
1993	17	3	1
2004	16	3	1
1995	16	5	0
1990	16	3	1

Sub 1:10, 1:05, & 1:00 by year (red = U.S. Championship).

I came up with 35 guys (and ½ a dozen masters who are NOT listed) who I think have a shot at breaking 1:10, but I have no way of knowing who is in shape or who is injured (especially for guys who don’t race much).  It is really hard to nail down what someone will run at Mt Washington based on road times, some people take to mountain running…others have walked off the course at 2 miles.  The best judge of how someone will do at Mt Washington is how they DID at Mt Washington.  So you’ll see a lot of the guys near the top of list tend to be guys with proven Mt Washington results.  I didn’t project an actual time for anyone, just a range of where I guess they may finish.  I estimate that there are about 15 guys who are in contention for the six spots on the U.S. team.  Note: This is all for charity and mostly for my own enjoyment; please don’t use this for betting purposes.  Also, if you are not happy with your ranking, please feel free to do your own damn list!

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Name		City	St	Age	Team	Range	Prior Mt Wash times	Other info
Rickey	Gates	Woody Creek	CO	31	Team Colorado	60-62	59:58-'09 1:01:32-'11	Two time Mt Washington champion
Max	King	Bend	OR	32	Montrail	60-64	1:03:18-'10	2012-2:14 marathon, 2011-World Mountain champion
Eric	Blake	New Britain	CT	33	BAA	60-65	1:00:39-'08, 1:00:40-'10	2011-32:30 10k.  Is he healthy?
Joseph	Gray	Newcastle	WA	28	Club NW	61-63	1:01:31-'10 & '08	2012-1:05 1/2, 2:56 50k
Tommy	Manning	Colorado Springs	CO	36	Team Colrado	61-64	1:01:42-'11 1:03:27-'10	Twice on the US Mtn team
Matthew	Byrne	Scranton	PA	37	LaSportiva	62-64	1:02:02-'08 1:03:31-'11	2011- 2:22 marathon
Simon	Gutierrez	Colorado Springs	CO	46	Team Colorado	62-65	1:01-'98  1:04-'11	Many times on US team and two time Mt Washington champ
Glenn	Randall	Mesa	CO	25	NB	62-65	1:03:36-'11	2011-2:20 marathon
Nate	Jenkins	Andover	MA	31	CMS	62-66		12-67:05 1/2, 30:32 10k, 14:32 5k, 1:08 Mt Wash training run
Tim	Chichester	Mount Morris	NY	23	GVH	62-66		2012-2:21 @ Boston, 30:49 10k
Sage	Canaday	Sheridan	OR	26		62-66		12-66:15, 218mar, 11-216 mar, 64:32 1/2
Jeremy	Freed	Boulder	CO	24		62-68		2012-31:38 Bolder Boulder 10k, 11-65 1/2, 30:28 10k
Kevin	Tilton	North Conway	NH	30	CMS	63-68	1:06:59-'11 1:03:42-'05	2012-39:31 12k, 1:08 Mt Washington training run
Peter	Maksimow	Manitou Springs	CO	33	Team Colorado	64-66	1:04:45-'11	2012-1:09 1/2
Nicholas	End	Pittsburgh	PA	28	GVH	64-68		12-68 1/2, 11-67 1/2, 219 mar
Jason	Bryant	Elkin	NC	39	Applachian	65-67	1:06:13-'09	Trail racer
John	Tribbia	Boulder	CO	30	Team Colorado	65-68	1:06:20-'10	10th at US Mountain champs in 2009 & 2010
Justin	Freeman	New Hampton	NH	35	RUN	65-68	1:06:28-'11	2012-2nd place Pack Monadnock Mtn race
Jared	Scott	Grand Canyon	AZ	29		65-70		Trail racer
Zack	Strong	Bozeman	MT	29	Montana Wind Drinker	65-70		Trail racer
Daniel	Princic	Reading	MA	32	WRT	66-69	1:06:36-'08 1:07:30-'11	2012-56 10m, 2011-1:11 1/2 marathon, 15:23 5k
Kristopher	Houghton	Albuquerque	NM	31	Dukes TC	66-69	1:06:51-'10	2012-15:50 5k, 2011-1:09 1/2 marathon
Jason	Delaney	Golden	CO	32	adidas	66-69	1:07:08-'10	2011-2:22:05 marathon  2010-2:19 marathon
Jim	Johnson	East Wakefield	NH	35	CMS	66-69	1:07:22-'11	2012-1:14 1/2 marathon, 15:57 5k, 1:10 Mt Wash training run
Kris	Freeman	Thornton	NH	31	US Ski team	66-69	1:07:46-'11
Matthew	Manning	Baton Rouge	LA	32	WCRC	66-70		12-69:22 1/2, 32:05 10k, 11-2:28 mar
Alex	Nichols	Colorado Springs	CO	27	Team Colorado	67-69	1:08:06-'10	Three times in the top 5 @ Pikes Peak
David	Hryvniak	Charlottesville	VA	27		68-70		12-71 1/2, 5356 10m, 11-2:33 mar
Gabriel	Rodriguez	Elkridge	MD	34	Under Armour	68-70		7th @ 2011 trail mar champs, PRs: 1428/3038/6905/2:31
James	Swasey	Jamieson	PA	20		68-70		2012-14:37 5k, 54:34 10 mile
Patrick	Ard	Raymond	NH	28	WRT	69-70	1:09:58-'11	2011-15:26 5k & 32:42 10k
Jacob	Bradley	Ringgold	GA	21	Rock Creek	69-70		College runner, lots of trail running results
Mark	Misch	Colorado Springs	CO	39	Team Colorado	69-70		6th @ 2011 Vail hill climb
Fernando	Ramirez	Kamas	UT	27	Luna Lobos	69-70		2012-3rd at Xterra Las Vegas, sled dog musher