Josh Fields recently posed the question “What is the
conversion to estimate performance at Mt Washington based on times at Ascutney”
(or something like that). His estimate of 2.2 seemed about right, but I decided
to do a little more research. Of course any projection doesn’t take into
account variables like weather (at either race they could be a huge factor) or a
runner having a great day at one race or the other.
I took the times for all men under 32 minutes (58 men) and
all women under 42 minutes (70). Then I compared them to performances FOR THAT
YEAR at Mt Washington. This got me 74 data points (people who ran under those
times and ran both races in the same year). From that I was able to come up
with projections of your “best”, “worst” and “average”. The best had a 2.04
ratio, worst was 2.47 and more importantly the average was 2.25. So check out
the link to the new Mt Washington projections. Just plug in your time at
Ascutney and it will give you an idea of a best case, worst case, and average
time for Mt Washington.
This is for entertainment purposes only, your time may vary.
Good luck!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12_uWfH_Iyj0UFmw4jZwCGUrpCDCjTz_hglygEfa_WyA/edit?usp=sharing
1 comment:
My 2004 Ascutney time is way too fast due to the "Chip on my shoulder" factor. :-)
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